Carmignac

Carmignac Sécurité : Letter from the Fund Manager

  • Autor(es)
    Marie-Anne Allier
  • Publicado
  • Longitud
    3 minuto(s) de lectura
  • -4.39%
    Carmignac Sécurité’s performance

    in the 1st quarter of 2022 for the AW EUR Share class

  • -1.03%
    Reference indicator’s

    performance in the 1st quarter of 2022 for ICE BofA ML 1-3 years Euro All Government Index (EUR)

  • -4.39%
    Year to date Performance of the Fund

    versus -1.03% for the reference indicator

Carmignac Sécurité lost –4.39% in the first quarter of 2022, while its reference indicator was down –1.03%.1

The bond market today

The inflationary pressures that emerged in 2021 didn’t ease in the first quarter. On the contrary – inflation has become the primary concern of central banks on both sides of the Atlantic, and therefore also of investors. Bond markets just recorded one of their worst quarters in the past 50 years, while the main sovereign bond indices in the developed world experienced their biggest cumulative losses since they were created. In managing our Carmignac Sécurité fund, we mitigated the effects of the higher yields and downturn in the corporate bond market by flexibly adjusting our modified duration and asset allocation. However, it was our Russian investments – and especially Gazprom, which just a few months ago was considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of the higher gas prices and the energy transition in a post-Covid world – that detracted the most from our Q1 performance. We’ve scaled back our exposure to Russia since the war broke out; it accounted for just 1% of the Fund’s assets at end-March, down from over 3.5% at the start of the year.

The macroeconomic climate changed quickly during the first quarter. Global GDP growth continued at a fairly brisk pace thanks to a weaker-than-expected Omicron wave, and job figures in the US – and to a lesser extent in Europe – were strong with unemployment down to levels approaching full employment. Inflation is now the biggest worry. The US Federal Reserve had already shifted its stance, trading in its patience for a more hawkish approach, and the ECB decided to follow in its footsteps at its March meeting. The higher inflation is no longer being dubbed “transitory,” as central banks are moving to quickly normalise their monetary policies and stem the rise in consumer prices. The outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine only reinforced this trend. Although the war poses a threat to economic growth, it is also having an asymmetric impact on inflation, pushing up commodities prices and intensifying the stress on supply chains – and we learned during the pandemic that this kind of stress is highly inflationary. The latest year-on-year inflation figures are startling: over 7% in the eurozone and nearly 8% in the US. In addition, economists and investors keep pushing back their forecasts for when these rates will fall to levels more acceptable to central bankers.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, risk assets like corporate bonds and eurozone-periphery credit spreads held up better than sovereign bonds in the current climate. The yield on 2-year Bunds rose 60 bps during the quarter (to close just under zero, at –0.07%), and credit spreads (measured by the iTraxx Crossover index) widened by “just” 80 bps. Even more surprisingly, those credit spreads ended the quarter slightly below where they were on 24 February – the day of Russia’s invasion. It’s as if investors think the real economy will be unphased by the consequences of the conflict. Spreads on sovereign debt, like those in Italy, followed a similar pattern and were affected much more by the ECB’s decision to halt its asset purchases than by the war in Ukraine.

Portfolio allocation

Against this backdrop, we made considerable changes to our portfolio in the first quarter.

  • First, in terms of modified duration. We steadily reduced it in January to the point where it was negative in early February. We then increased it sharply but temporarily, to nearly 3, on fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would delay action by central banks and prompt a flight to safe-haven assets. We then quickly pared it back towards zero after hearing the statements from central bankers. The modified duration of our portfolio ended the quarter close to zero, and still with a long bias on corporate paper hedged using short positions on core sovereign bonds.
  • In our inflation strategies, we again initiated a position on higher inflation in mid-February, first on the 5-year segment which we later transferred to the 10-year segment (as we simultaneously increased the exposure).

  • In corporate bonds, we took advantage of the many issues on the primary market at the start of this year to start investing the cash we’d built up at the end of last year. But then we reversed course in late February – partly by hedging our portfolio with protection on credit indices, but mostly by selling a large part of our bond holdings. Given the more hawkish tone at the ECB (meaning higher interest rates) and the much more uncertain economic climate (meaning higher credit spreads), we preferred to build up a pool of cash that we can invest later at more attractive prices. We shrank our allocation to bonds held directly (i.e., excluding CLOs) by 15% between its high point and end-March, so that it’s now less than 50% of the Fund’s assets. In addition, at quarter-end we had hedges on over 13% of our high-yield investments.
  • We reduced our exposure to Russia during the quarter. Much of the decline in Russia’s weighting in our portfolio can be attributed to the fall in the prices of those assets, but we also sold some of our holdings when the war broke out. We disposed of our Lukoil and Norilsk Nickel bonds and some of our Gazprom bonds. However, bond prices quickly dropped to levels that we believe are below the recovery rate in the event of default. We therefore decided to hold on to our remaining paper, which accounted for 1% of the portfolio at end-March (70% Gazprom bonds and 30% Russian sovereign debt). All these issues are denominated in euros, except for one Gazprom bond denominated in Swiss francs. Our Russian investments were behind most of the Fund’s underperformance in the first quarter.

Outlook

The four main performance drivers for our Fund in the coming months will be:

  • A lower modified duration coupled with credit protection, which should let us withstand or even gain from further rises in interest rates, inflation, and credit spreads as central banks withdraw support more quickly.
  • A carry rate of nearly 2%, which is considerably higher than in recent years despite the circumstances; this carry is comprised mainly of corporate bonds in our three high-conviction themes: energy, banks, and CLOs.
  • An over 30% allocation to cash and cash equivalents, which will let us seize opportunities quickly when bond prices start factoring in much of the monetary-policy normalisation.
  • A residual exposure to Russia (mainly Gazprom), which we will reduce further when valuations are no longer being impacted by a dislocated market and extremely punitive implied recovery rates.

Carmignac Sécurité

Flexible, low duration solution to challenging European markets

Discover the fund page

Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010149120
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (YTD)
?
Year to date
Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc +0.04 % -3.00 % +3.57 % +2.05 % +0.22 % -5.29 %
Indicador de referencia -0.39 % -0.29 % +0.07 % -0.15 % -0.71 % -1.95 %

Scroll right to see full table

3 años 5 años 10 años
Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc -0.25 % -0.56 % +0.70 %
Indicador de referencia -0.96 % -0.65 % +0.46 %

Scroll right to see full table

​Las rentabilidades históricas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.  La rentabilidad es neta de comisiones (excluyendo las eventuales comisiones de entrada aplicadas por el distribuidor)

Fuente: Carmignac a 31/05/2022

Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010149120

Duración mínima recomendada de la inversión

Riesgo más bajo Riesgo más elevado

Potencialmente menor rentabilidad Potencialmente mayor rentabilidad

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Principales riesgos del Fondo

TIPO DE INTERÉS: El riesgo de tipo de interés se traduce por una disminución del valor liquidativo en caso de variación de los tipos de interés.

CRÉDITO: El riesgo de crédito corresponde al riesgo de que el emisor no sea capaz de atender sus obligaciones.

PÉRDIDA DE CAPITAL: La cartera no ofrece garantía o protección alguna del capital invertido. La pérdida de capital se produce en el momento de vender una participación a un precio inferior al del precio de compra.

TIPO DE CAMBIO: El riesgo de cambio está vinculado a la exposición, por medio de inversiones directas o de instrumentos financieros a plazo, a una divisa distinta de la divisa de valoración del Fondo.

El fondo no garantiza la preservación del capital.

* Escala de riesgo del DFI (Datos fundamentales para el inversor). El riesgo 1 no implica una inversión sin riesgo. Este indicador podría evolucionar con el tiempo.

1 Reference indicator: ICE BofA 1-3 Year All Euro Government Index (coupons reinvested).
2 Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg au 31/03/2022. Performance of the AW EUR Acc. unit Until December 31, 2020, the reference indicator was the Euro MTS 1-3 years. KIID (Key Investor Information Document) risk scale. Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance may change, either upwards or downwards, due to currency fluctuations. Performance is net of fees (excluding distributor's front-end load). ISIN code of the AW EUR Acc share class: FR0010149120

Esto es una comunicación publicitaria. ​ El presente documento está dirigido a clientes profesionales.

Este material no puede reproducirse, ni total ni parcialmente, sin el consentimiento previo de la sociedad gestora. Este material no constituye una oferta de suscripción ni un asesoramiento de inversión. Este material no constituye una recomendación contable, jurídica o tributaria y no debe ser tenido en cuenta a tales efectos. Este material se proporciona con carácter exclusivamente informativo y podría no resultar fiable a la hora de evaluar las ventajas derivadas de invertir en cualquier tipo de participaciones o valores mencionados en el presente documento o de cara a cualquier otra finalidad. La información contenida en este material podría no ser completa y estar sujeta a modificación sin preaviso alguno. Las informaciones se expresan a fecha de redacción del material y proceden de fuentes propias y externas consideradas fiables por Carmignac, no son necesariamente exhaustivas y su exactitud no está garantizada. En consecuencia, Carmignac, sus responsables, empleados o agentes no proporcionan garantía alguna de precisión o fiabilidad y no se responsabilizan en modo alguno de los errores u omisiones (incluida la responsabilidad para con cualquier persona debido a una negligencia). ​Las rentabilidades históricas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. 

La rentabilidad es neta de comisiones (excluyendo las eventuales comisiones de entrada aplicadas por el distribuidor). La rentabilidad podrá subir o bajar a resultas de las fluctuaciones en los tipos de cambio en el caso de las participaciones que carezcan de cobertura de divisas. La mención a determinados valores o instrumentos financieros se realiza a efectos ilustrativos, para destacar determinados títulos presentes o que han figurado en las carteras de los Fondos de la gama Carmignac. Ésta no busca promover la inversión directa en dichos instrumentos ni constituye un asesoramiento de inversión. La Gestora no está sujeta a la prohibición de efectuar transacciones con estos instrumentos antes de la difusión de la información.

El acceso a los Fondos podrá estar restringido a determinadas personas o países. Este material no está dirigido a ninguna persona de ninguna jurisdicción en la que (debido al lugar de residencia o nacionalidad de la persona o a cualquier otra cuestión) el material o la disponibilidad de este material esté prohibido. Las personas objeto de estas prohibiciones no deben acceder a este material. La tributación depende de la situación de la persona. Los Fondos no están registrados para su distribución a inversores minoristas en Asia, Japón, Norteamérica ni están registrados en Sudamérica. Los Fondos Carmignac están registrados en Singapur como institución de inversión extranjera restringida (exclusivamente para clientes profesionales). Los Fondos no han sido registrados en virtud de la ley de valores estadounidense (US Securities Act) de 1933. Los Fondos podrán no ofertarse o venderse, directa o indirectamente, en beneficio o en nombre de una «Persona estadounidense», según la definición recogida por el Reglamento estadounidense S (Regulation S) y la ley FATCA. Podrá consultar los folletos de los Fondos, los documentos DFI, el VL y los informes anuales en la web www.carmignac.com o previa petición a la Gestora. Los riesgos, comisiones y gastos corrientes se detallan en el documento de datos fundamentales para el inversor (DFI). El DFI deberá estar a disposición del suscriptor con anterioridad a la suscripción. El suscriptor debe leer el DFI. Los inversores podrían perder parte o la totalidad de su capital, dado que el capital en los fondos no está garantizado. Los Fondos presentan un riesgo de pérdida de capital.

Para España : Los Fondos se encuentran registrados ante la Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores de España, con los números : Carmignac Sécurité 395, Carmignac Portfolio 392, Carmignac Patrimoine 386, Carmignac Long-short European Equities 398, Carmignac Investissement 385, Carmignac Emergents 387, Carmignac Credit 2025 1947, Carmignac Euro Entrepreneur 396, Carmignac Court Terme 1111.​

La Sociedad gestora puede cesar la promoción en su país en cualquier momento. Los inversores pueden acceder a un resumen de sus derechos en español en el siguiente enlace sección 6: www.carmignac.es/es_ES/article-page/informacion-legal-1759​

Carmignac Portfolio hace referencia a los sub fondos de Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, una compañía de inversión bajo derecho luxemburgués, conforme a la directiva UCITS. Los Fondos son fondos comunes de derecho francés (FCP) conforme a la directiva UCITS o AIFM.